STA 4321-
Introduction to Probability
STA 5325 - Fundamentals of Probability

Instructor: Larry Winner

Office: FLO 228

Phone: (352) 273-2995

E-mail:  winner@stat.ufl.edu

Office Hours:
M 12:00-1:00      Tu 8:30-10:00    W 9:30-10:30    Th 10:00-11:30

TA: Minji Lee,   Office: FLO 203,   e-mail:  mlee9@ufl.edu     Office Hours:  M 7th Period,  Tu 8th Period,  Th 3rd Period
Trung Ha,   Office: FLO 115A  e-mail: httrung@stat.ufl.edu    Office Hours: W 11:30-2:30. F 11:30-2:30

Exam 3 2015 Scores (Total = 115):   Code = COS(UFID) + TAN(UFID)      in Radians   Solutions

Exam 4 2015 Scores (Total = 116):    CODE = 100*SIN(UFID)*LN(UFID) - ATAN(UFID)*SQRT(UFID)    in Radians

Fall 2015 Syllabus (HTML)

Exam 2 - Friday, October 9: Sections: 3.5,3.7,3.8,3.9,3.11,4.1-4.5

Exam 3 - Wednesday, November 4: Sections: 4.5-4.10, 5.1-5.5

Exam 4 - Monday, Dec. 7: Sections: 5.6-5.9, 5.11, 6.1-6.5, 6.7

Spring 2007 Grade Cut-offs for 4321 (No "minuses" back then): A=90+, B+=85-90, B=75-85, C+=70-75, C=60-70

Spring 2007 Exams

Exam 1 Solutions (1 Version)

Exam 2 Solutions (1 Version)

Exam 3 Solutions (1 Version)

Exam 4 Solutions (6th Period Version)

Exam 5 Solutions (5th Period)

Exam 5 Solutions (6th Period)

Final Exam Solutions (5th Period)

Final Exam Solutions (6th Period)

Exams 1-5 Cumulative Distribution Functions

Project 1 - Due 10/9/15 (in class)      EXCEL Template for Output (Based on 100 Samples, n=20 sub-intervals, p=.10)

Project 2 - Due 11/23/15 (in class)

EXCEL Instructions for Plots and Generating Random Samples from Distributions (PPT)

Instructions for Histograms in EXCEL (WORD)

2006 Exams

Exam1

Exam2 (Version1)     Exam2 (Version2)

Exam3 (Version1)     Exam3 (Version2)

Final Exam Solutions (Rinker Hall)

Final Exam Solutions (Norman Hall)

Instructions for Histograms in EXCEL (WORD)

Useful Results from Calculus (WORD)

EXCEL Probability Distribution Functions (WORD)

EXCEL Instructions for Plots and Generating Random Samples from Distributions (PPT)

Chapter 1 Materials

Rock n Roll Marathon Example   R Program

NFL Combine Example               R Program        EXCEL

Chapter 2 Materials

Probability (PPT)

Basic Probability Problems  (WORD)        EXCEL File with Tables

Coin Toss Simulation  (EXCEL)

NASCAR Race Start/Finish (EXCEL)

Roulette Wheel  (EXCEL)

Roulette Probability Exercises  (WORD)

Roulette Wheel Partial Solution  (EXCEL)

5 Card Poker Hands (WORD)

Florida Lotto Winning Numbers (Numbers 1:49 5/7/1988-10/21/1999, 1:53 10/24/1999-8/29/2015)

Applications of Bayes' Rule  (PPT)

Airline Simulation Exercise  (WORD)

Chapter 3 Materials

Discrete Random Variables (PPT)

Deflategate - Binomial Distribution  (EXCEL)

Airline Reservations - Binomial Distribution  (WORD)

Airline Reservations - Expected Revenues  (EXCEL)

Delta Atlanta On-Time Operations  - Binomial/Geometric Distributions  (PPT)

Wars by Year - Poisson Distribution  (PPT)

English Premier League Goals  (PPT)

Wars by Year Data  (EXCEL)

Florida Lotto - Pick 6 - Hypergeometic Distribution (PPT)

US Currency \$100 Bills - Negative Binomial  (EXCEL)

Bonus Problems

Chapter 4 Materials

Rock n Roll Marathon Example   R Program

NFL Combine Example               R Program        EXCEL

Anita Wlodarczyk Competitive Hammer Throw Distances     R Program

Proportion Positive Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes     R Program

Seattle Monthly Rainfall 1949-2014    R Program

Continuous Probability Distributions  (PPT)

Ice Cream Carts on Linear (Uniform) Beach (EXCEL)

Exponential and Gamma Density Functions (EXCEL)

U.S. County Per Capita Retail Sales Data/Histogram  (EXCEL)

Beta Beach Example  (EXCEL)

Bonus Problems - Sections 4.1-4.5

Bonus Problems - Sections 4.6,4.7,4.10

Normal Density Function (Up to 6 at once)   (EXCEL)

Gamma Density Function (Up to 6 at once)    (EXCEL)

Beta Density Function (Up to 6 at once)        (EXCEL)

Chapter 5 Materials

Multivariate Probability Distributions (PPT)

IQ and Stock Market Participation     WORD    EXCEL

Television Sales (EXCEL)

Stock Price Example (WORD)

Political Poll Example - Multinomial Distribution  (WORD)

Multinomial Distribution - Premier League Soccer Game Outcomes (PPT)

Conditional Expectations - Television Sales (PPT)

Bivariate Normal Density (Includes 3-D plot that updates with parameter changes)  (EXCEL)

Bonus Problems (Also see Political Poll example)  (WORD)

Bivariate Normal Distribution and Inheritance of Height  (PPT)

Bayesian Updating of Probabilities  (WORD)

Chapter 6 & 7 Materials

Functions of Random Variables (PPT)

Linear City - Courier Costs

Approximations to Distributions: Limit Theorems (PPT)

Derivation of Student's t and the F Distributions  (PPT)

Bonus Problems Section 6.6 and Chapter 7 (WORD)

Plot of Fish Catching Example (EXCEL)

Sampling Distributions - NHL and EPL BMIs (R)

Sampling Distributions - Rock&Roll Marathon Velocities (R)