The SAS System 1 14:28 Tuesday, March 20, 2018 The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: logtrap Number of Observations Read 45 Number of Observations Used 45 Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 1 197.22114 197.22114 70.31 <.0001 Error 43 120.61293 2.80495 Corrected Total 44 317.83407 Root MSE 1.67480 R-Square 0.6205 Dependent Mean 3.90120 Adj R-Sq 0.6117 Coeff Var 42.93038 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.65515 0.46064 1.42 0.1622 water 1 0.01564 0.00187 8.39 <.0001 The SAS System 2 14:28 Tuesday, March 20, 2018 The REG Procedure Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: logtrap Durbin-Watson D 1.287 Number of Observations 45 1st Order Autocorrelation 0.326 The SAS System 3 14:28 Tuesday, March 20, 2018 The AUTOREG Procedure Dependent Variable logtrap Ordinary Least Squares Estimates SSE 120.612934 DFE 43 MSE 2.80495 Root MSE 1.67480 SBC 179.684374 AIC 176.07105 MAE 1.37768175 AICC 176.356764 MAPE 29.4657146 HQC 177.418061 Durbin-Watson 1.2873 Regress R-Square 0.6205 Total R-Square 0.6205 Parameter Estimates Standard Approx Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 0.6551 0.4606 1.42 0.1622 water 1 0.0156 0.001866 8.39 <.0001 Estimates of Autocorrelations Lag Covariance Correlation -1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 2.6803 1.000000 | |********************| 1 0.8725 0.325539 | |******* | Preliminary MSE 2.3962 Estimates of Autoregressive Parameters Standard Lag Coefficient Error t Value 1 -0.325539 0.145898 -2.23 Algorithm converged. The SAS System 4 14:28 Tuesday, March 20, 2018 The AUTOREG Procedure Maximum Likelihood Estimates SSE 103.425915 DFE 42 MSE 2.46252 Root MSE 1.56924 SBC 176.769014 AIC 171.349026 MAE 1.23183832 AICC 171.934392 MAPE 24.0321621 HQC 173.369543 Log Likelihood -82.674513 Regress R-Square 0.5590 Durbin-Watson 1.8185 Total R-Square 0.6746 Observations 45 Parameter Estimates Standard Approx Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.0898 0.5481 1.99 0.0533 water 1 0.0133 0.001821 7.29 <.0001 AR1 1 -0.4218 0.1450 -2.91 0.0058 Autoregressive parameters assumed given Standard Approx Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Intercept 1 1.0898 0.5470 1.99 0.0529 water 1 0.0133 0.001820 7.30 <.0001