Dataset: poker_probest.dat Source: J. Liley and T. Rakow (2010). "Probability Estimation in Poker: A Qualified Success for Unaided Judgment," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 23, pp. 496-526. Description: Results of probbability of winning estimates among poker players in Texas Hold-em under 3 timing conditions, 25 scenarios per condition. Conditions: 1=Pre-flop (player only knows his/her 2 personal cards) 2=Flop task (player knows his/her 2, plus first 3 community cards) 3=Jack/10 task (player sees his/her Jack/10 and first 3 comm cards) Study 1: Player sees all 25 scenarios per condition on single page, as well as number of opponents (Cued to be able to rank hands by comparing the 25 scenarios, possibly) Study 3: Players see one hand at a time, unaware of number of opponents (presumably more realistic). Only 25 total scenarios due to time Note: Goal will to be determining the relation between predicted winning probability to actual winning probability. Variables/Columns Condition 8 /* see description above */ Starting hand index 15-16 /* Not used in analysis, just reference */ flop cards index 23-24 /* Not used in analysis, just reference */ number of opponents 32 /* Not used in analysis, just reference */ true probability of winning 36-40 /* Stated as percent */ Study 1 mean estimated probability of winning 44-48 /* percent */ Study 3 mean estimated probability of winning 52-56 /* percent (-1=N/A) */