Abstracts for 2013 Challis Lectures
by James O. Berger
General Lecture (Nov 14, 2013)
Reproducibility of Science: P-values and Multiplicity
Published scientific findings seem to be increasingly
failing efforts at replication. This is undoubtedly due to many
sources, including specifics of individual scientific cultures and
overall scientific biases such as publication bias. While these will
be briefly discussed, the talk will focus on the all-too-common misuse
of p-values and failure to properly account for multiplicities as two
likely major contributors to the lack of reproducibility. The Bayesian
approaches to both testing and multiplicity will be highlighted as
possible general solutions to the problem.
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Technical Lecture (Nov 15, 2013)
Risk Assessment for Pyroclastic Flows
The problem of risk assessment for rare natural hazards –
such as volcanic pyroclastic flows – is addressed, and illustrated
with the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of
Montserrat. Assessment is approached through a combination of
mathematical computer modeling, statistical modeling of geophysical
data, and extreme-event probability computation.A mathematical
computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed
extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical
modeling of the available geophysical data is needed to determine the
initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In
dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer
model are prohibitively expensive, so computation of the risk
probabilities requires a combination of adaptive design of computer
model approximations (emulators) and rare event simulation.
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