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Abstracts for 2013 Challis Lectures
by James O. Berger

 

General Lecture (Nov 14, 2013)

Reproducibility of Science: P-values and Multiplicity

Published scientific findings seem to be increasingly failing efforts at replication. This is undoubtedly due to many sources, including specifics of individual scientific cultures and overall scientific biases such as publication bias. While these will be briefly discussed, the talk will focus on the all-too-common misuse of p-values and failure to properly account for multiplicities as two likely major contributors to the lack of reproducibility. The Bayesian approaches to both testing and multiplicity will be highlighted as possible general solutions to the problem.

Technical Lecture (Nov 15, 2013)

Risk Assessment for Pyroclastic Flows

The problem of risk assessment for rare natural hazards – such as volcanic pyroclastic flows – is addressed, and illustrated with the Soufriere Hills Volcano on the island of Montserrat. Assessment is approached through a combination of mathematical computer modeling, statistical modeling of geophysical data, and extreme-event probability computation.A mathematical computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available geophysical data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive, so computation of the risk probabilities requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximations (emulators) and rare event simulation.